⚡ 86.8% of Polymarket Users Couldn’t Turn a Profit
posted 9 Oct 2024
According to data from the analytical platform LayerHub, only 13.2% of users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket have made a profit from their bets. Out of 176,000 gamblers, only 23,000 earned a profit, with just 8.7% of them making more than $1,000.
The majority of gains were under $100.
Profit distribution among wallets on Polymarket. Source: layerhub.xyz
As the data illustrates, most Polymarket users end up losing less than $100. This might be tied to typical gambling psychology: a $100 bet feels relatively insignificant, making the loss easier to handle.
Small Bets Dominate on Polymarket
LayerHub’s analysis reveals that most wallets on Polymarket contain between $10 and $30, classifying them as micro-balances. Moreover, 32.8% of users have made between 1 and 5 bets, indicating a cautious approach to betting.
The breakdown shows that 25,000 wallets hold under $10, 27,000 range from $10 to $30, 23,000 between $30 and $100, and 13,000 hold between $100 and $500.
Wallets holding over $500 are less common: 1,700 hold between $500 and $1,000, 2,500 between $1,000 and $10,000, and just 473 exceed $10,000.
Wallet balance breakdown. Source: layerhub.xyz
The trading volume for most wallets doesn’t exceed $100. About 60,000 users have placed bets totaling up to $100, 35,000 up to $500, and 16,000 up to $1,000.
Token Rumors Fuel Surge in Polymarket Activity
On September 23, The Information released a report suggesting that Polymarket was on the verge of raising $50 million and launching its native token. Eager airdrop hunters quickly jumped in, activating their wallets in hopes of increasing their chances of receiving tokens.
The effect is evident in the charts: Polymarket’s daily trading volume spiked from $13.8 million on September 23 to $100 million by October 7.
Polymarket’s trading volume surges with token launch speculation. Source: layerhub.xyz
Since September 23, Polymarket has seen a rise in new wallet registrations. Before the rumors surfaced, the platform averaged about 1,500 new users daily. Afterward, this figure jumped to between 2,500 and 3,000.
In just two weeks, Polymarket’s user base expanded from 130,000 to 175,000.
Interest was further fueled by an HBO documentary that led users to bet on Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity. However, right after the film was released, the number of daily active wallets fell dramatically—from 20,000 to just 6,000.
It’s also worth noting that not every wallet represents a unique user. Many Polymarket participants engage in “multi-accounting,” creating multiple wallets to increase their chances of benefiting from an airdrop.
It’s important to note that several cryptocurrency platforms view multi-accounting as unethical, as it undermines the fairness of airdrops.
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