Arthur Hayes — Bull Cycle Likely to Last Until March 2025

posted  7 Jan 2025
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Hayes’ essay "Sasa" explores how liquidity sources like the Reverse REPO Facility could keep the market thriving despite political instability. He also highlights Maelstrom’s growing focus on DeSci investments.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, highlights degen activity—speculative, high-risk investments—in his essay "Sasa," advising risk-tolerant individuals to explore such opportunities despite the inherent volatility.

He believes the “Trump Pump” bull cycle in crypto will continue until late March 2025.
In a shift from his December outlook, Arthur Hayes, in "Sasa," dismissed his earlier projection of a market crash during Trump’s inauguration. Previously, he had cautioned that unrealistic hopes for Trump’s crypto policies would spark investor panic and widespread sell-offs.

The crypto billionaire and Maelstrom CIO now sees a different dynamic at play: “I still believe that is a potential negative factor that could weigh upon the market in the short term, but against that, I must balance the dollar liquidity impulse.”

Bitcoin’s volatility is directly influenced by dollar issuance, Hayes observed.

He forecasted that $237 billion in liquidity will be released as the Reverse REPO Facility, used by banks to park surplus cash with the Federal Reserve, continues to decline. Hayes suggested the RRP balance could completely deplete by the end of the quarter.

Wrapping up, the Maelstrom CIO revealed increased investments in DeSci tokens, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON. DeSci leverages blockchain and crypto technologies to revolutionize scientific research and funding.