🌋 Betting on Satoshi’s Identity: Polymarket's Big Gamble
posted 4 Oct 2024
On October 3, HBO revealed its upcoming documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”. According to Politico, HBO claims to have identified the true Satoshi Nakamoto and plans to unveil their findings in the film, which is set to air on October 8.
In response to the news, prediction market Polymarket opened a new betting round titled “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?”. Users can bet on one of 16 possible candidates, with Elon Musk among them.
Who Will HBO Name as Satoshi Nakamoto? Polymarket Bets Are In. Source: polymarket.com
39% of Polymarket users favor Len Sassaman, an American cryptographer and privacy advocate.
Sassaman, known for his work in cryptography, founded a startup at 22, though it didn’t succeed. He later joined Network Associates to work on PGP encryption.
Many believe this ties directly to one of Satoshi’s famous statements: when launching Bitcoin, Satoshi hoped that BTC would do for money what cryptography had done for file protection—possibly alluding to PGP, an early cryptographic solution.
Another point in favor of Len Sassaman being the real Satoshi is the correlation in the timing of their disappearances. Sassaman took his own life on July 3, 2011, just over six months after Satoshi’s final activity on the BTCTalk forum.
Satoshi Nakamoto's profile on BTCTalk. Source: bitcointalk.org
Some participants also believe that Satoshi’s true identity might belong to someone outside the list on Polymarket. This theory is supported by 37% of the bettors. Additionally, 18% favor American developer Hal Finney, known for receiving the very first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi.
As the film’s release approaches and speculation grows, the crypto community's meme culture has ramped up. Creators are drawing caricatures of Satoshi Nakamoto, altering Elon Musk’s skin color to black (in reference to the current BLM narrative in films), and crafting a "Satoshi Probability Compass."
Satoshi’s Probability Compass. Source: x.com
Many are questioning how this bet was allowed on Polymarket in the first place. Since HBO’s team likely knows the answer to “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?”, there’s speculation that this information could be exploited for profit.
Despite these concerns, the trading volume for this bet has already crossed the $100,000 mark.
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