🚀 $100,000 Bitcoin? Probability Sits at 10%
posted 25 Oct 2024
While many market participants are still banking on an Uptober surge, Deribit’s options platform puts the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 by year’s end at only 10%.
It appears that nothing should impede BTC’s upward momentum.
However, a 10% probability correlates closely with the anticipated low volatility for BTC, indicating the market doesn’t foresee large fluctuations through year’s end. The U.S. presidential election might add an element worth considering, though.
Still, options markets indicate a 54% chance of BTC seeing a 22% swing in either direction, including a potential rise to $80,000—a figure that’s not too shabby for the bulls.
Crypto options represent derivative contracts, which give the owner the choice to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price within a specific timeframe.
It’s important to remember that options market probabilities can swing sharply with market shifts, implying that Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may rise if we see heightened volatility.
BTC options expiry probabilities for different price levels through the end of 2024. Source: coindesk.com
This conservative estimate might puzzle bullish traders, especially as the market seems to have broken out of a lengthy correction and recent crypto ETFs have gained approval.
It appears that nothing should impede BTC’s upward momentum.
However, a 10% probability correlates closely with the anticipated low volatility for BTC, indicating the market doesn’t foresee large fluctuations through year’s end. The U.S. presidential election might add an element worth considering, though.
Still, options markets indicate a 54% chance of BTC seeing a 22% swing in either direction, including a potential rise to $80,000—a figure that’s not too shabby for the bulls.
Crypto options represent derivative contracts, which give the owner the choice to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price within a specific timeframe.
It’s important to remember that options market probabilities can swing sharply with market shifts, implying that Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may rise if we see heightened volatility.
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