Financial Astrology: Exploring Tritch’s Cycles
While American financial analyst George Trich might not ring a bell for most crypto enthusiasts, seasoned investors turn to his methodologies as often as a seer might turn to Tarot cards.
George Tritch’s renowned "Periods When to Make Money" chart, crafted in 1883, depicts phases of market downturns, opportune moments to invest in assets, and intervals best for divestment.
Tritch formulated a cyclical framework that mirrors recurring events in financial markets. Harnessing data since 1783, he ambitiously charted market trends leading up to 2059.
How to Interpret Tritch's Diagram?
Tritch's diagram centers on the core principles of bull and bear markets. A bull market is characterized by a general economic upswing and an uptick in investor activity. On the flip side, bear markets reflect a decline in asset prices accompanied by a widespread sense of panic in the community.
Tritch's chart provides insights into how to profit from these alternating phases. Simply put, it's a visual representation of Warren Buffett's famous advice: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Tritch's "Periods When to Make Money" Chart. Source: Public Domain
What do the letters on the diagram represent?
A — periods of panic, trend reversals, and the emergence of bearish sentiments;
B — the ideal times to offload assets at peak prices;
C — the best times to acquire assets, marking the start of a bull market.
An essential note: George Tritch took into account even the seasonal variations. Based on past data, he deduced that certain months consistently offer better investment returns than others.
Can Traditional Methods Work for Modern Markets?
Experts in the realm of conventional finance argue that Triеch's chart boasts an impressive accuracy of approximately 90% (with notable exceptions for the years 1958 and 1999). Thus, this method might be employed for predicting major shifts in global trends as described by the Dow Theory.
But how suitable is this approach when applied to the dynamic world of cryptocurrency markets?
Applying this method might seem questionable. George Tritch's principles were:
- Global trends shift (A) every 16/18/20 years.
- The prime window for asset selling (B) occurs every 8/9/10 years.
- Optimal asset buying opportunities (C) arise in cycles spanning 3-6/2-5/4-7 years.
Interestingly, he attributed these patterns to the movements of celestial bodies. While we might not be inclined to delve deep into the confluence of astrology and economics, especially how lunar cycles might impact altcoin volatility, it's a point worth noting without drawing conclusions.
The captivating aspect, however, emerges as per this chart: 2023 signals the close of a divestment phase, potentially hinting at 2024 being pivotal for acquisitions. Could this suggest celestial insight into the upcoming BTC halving?
Placing faith in George Tritch's methods remains a personal choice. But isn't there an allure in incorporating a 19th-century analytical tool into today's market assessment toolkit?
Placing faith in George Tritch's methods remains a personal choice. But isn't there an allure in incorporating a 19th-century analytical tool into today's market assessment toolkit?
