The NFT marketplace OpenSea, a pioneer in the space for the past seven years, is expected to launch its native token in 2025. A significant portion of the tokens will likely be distributed through a retroactive airdrop—a common way to reward the community for their past activity and support.
OpenSea Token Launch: The Perfect Moment
The year 2024 has been a banner year for the crypto market. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $100,000, Donald Trump became the U.S. president with plans to transform the country into a crypto-friendly hub, and altcoins surged by 300–400% for the first time in years.
Many long-anticipated projects launched their tokens and retroactive airdrops in 2024, including Hyperliquid, Pengu, Scroll, Fuel, EigenLayer, SynFutures, and others. With the bull market still thriving, the chances of OpenSea launching its token have never looked better.
Notably, most of OpenSea's competitors in the NFT marketplace space have already released their native tokens, including Blur, Tensor, Magic Eden, X2Y2, LooksRare, and Sudoswap. OpenSea remains the only major NFT marketplace without its own token.
Top NFT Marketplaces by Trading Volume. Source: Defillama.com
The anticipation for an OpenSea token is palpable within its community. On the betting platform Polymarket, the probability of OpenSea distributing a retroactive airdrop by March 31, 2025, stands at 76%. This optimism underscores the strong belief among users that such a launch is imminent.
Likelihood of an OpenSea Airdrop Before March 31, 2025. Source: Polymarket.com
OpenSea by the Numbers
OpenSea’s cumulative trading volume has surpassed $39.5 billion, with the company’s net profit reaching $937 million.
OpenSea NFT Marketplace Statistics. Source: dune.com
As of December 2024, daily trading volumes on OpenSea consistently exceed $5 million. The platform set a record on December 16, with a single-day volume of $28.5 million.
In the context of a potential retroactive airdrop, the most intriguing metric is the number of users who might qualify for token distribution. Since mid-2021, the platform’s monthly active traders have ranged between 200,000 and 600,000:
Monthly Active Users on OpenSea. Source: dune.com
The total number of unique users—those who have completed at least one transaction on the platform—exceeds 2.5 million:
Total Unique Traders on OpenSea. Source: dune.com
Looking at past major airdrops (e.g., Pengu, Magic Eden, Xion, Starknet, and Scroll), between 500,000 and 800,000 unique wallets typically received tokens. Following this trend, approximately 30% of OpenSea’s users are likely to qualify for rewards in the anticipated airdrop.
Potential Criteria for OpenSea’s Airdrop
Projects often need to filter out a large number of accounts to ensure that rewards are distributed fairly among genuinely active participants. Previous retroactive airdrops have shown that criteria vary significantly between projects, making it difficult to predict the exact actions required to guarantee rewards.
However, looking at OpenSea’s potential airdrop, it’s reasonable to consider the criteria used by its competitors, such as Magic Eden, Blur, and Tensor. Based on these precedents, the following factors are likely to determine eligibility:
- Trading Volume: A cumulative trading volume of $10,000 or more is often a key criterion for DEXs and NFT marketplaces.
- Activity and Frequency: The number of trading days, weeks, or months could influence eligibility.
- Multichain Activity: OpenSea operates on Ethereum, Avalanche, Base, Optimism, Arbitrum, and other EVM-compatible blockchains. Trading across multiple networks may enhance eligibility.
- Fees Paid: The total amount of royalties or fees paid directly to OpenSea could be a critical factor.
- NFT Creation: Users who minted their own NFTs on OpenSea may be prioritized.
Some platforms also limit eligibility based on the collections traded. For example, Tensor awarded points only to users trading NFTs from the top 100 collections by daily volume. While such a restriction is less likely for OpenSea, it cannot be entirely ruled out.
The Future of OpenSea’s Token
If the cryptocurrency market maintains its bullish momentum, the success of OpenSea’s token appears highly likely. Tokens launched in November and December 2024, such as PENGU, HYPE, and MOVE, rapidly achieved market capitalizations of $1–2 billion and entered the top 100 assets by market cap, according to data from Coingecko and Coinmarketcap.
OpenSea’s native token is expected to follow a similar path, provided there is no significant Bitcoin correction or unexpected FUD affecting the market. On the betting platform Polymarket, there’s already speculation on whether OpenSea’s token will reach a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of $1 billion within a week of its listing. At the time of writing, the likelihood of this event is estimated at 54%.
Bet on OpenSea Token’s Fully Diluted Valuation. Source: polymarket.com
How to Profit from OpenSea’s Token Before Its Launch
Although OpenSea has not yet officially announced its token launch, there are already several opportunities to capitalize on the hype surrounding this event:
- Trading Popular NFT Collections. Since early December 2024, prices for top NFT collections have risen by 100–200%, allowing traders to secure substantial profits.
- Buying NFTs for Future Airdrops. Projects like Grass and Pudgy Penguins rewarded ecosystem NFT holders with significant retroactive airdrops. Similar opportunities may arise with other projects, such as Berachain NFTs, which we’ve covered previously on our website.
- Betting on Polymarket. Polymarket currently offers four active bets on OpenSea’s potential token. Check out our review of Polymarket to learn more about crypto betting strategies.
- Creating and Selling Your Own NFT Collections.
All Current Bets on OpenSea’s Token. Source: polymarket.com
A potential retroactive airdrop from OpenSea isn’t the only way to boost your crypto wallet. While the market sentiment remains positive, explore these strategies to maximize your earnings and position yourself as the next NFT success story.
