The Future of AI: Exploring Mustafa Suleyman’s "The Coming Wave"
Mustafa Suleyman's book "The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century's Greatest Dilemma," co-authored with Michael Bhaskar, explores the profound impacts of AI and other fast-developing technologies on our world.
Suleyman, known for co-founding the AI companies DeepMind and Inflection AI, presents an urgent warning about the risks these technologies pose to global order and the necessity of containing them. The book focuses on an in-depth exploration of how we might navigate these concerning risks while there is still time.
The Nature of the Current Technological Wave
Having been actively involved in AI research and development for over a decade, Mustafa Suleyman argues that the current technological wave we are experiencing is unprecedented in both scale and unpredictability. This new ‘coming wave’, powered by advancements in AI, synthetic biology and other related fields such as quantum computing, is set to reshape our world in ways we are yet to fully comprehend.
The coming wave of technology is built primarily on two general-purpose technologies capable of operating at the grandest and most granular levels alike: artificial intelligence and synthetic biology. For the first time core components of our technological ecosystem directly address two foundational properties of our world: intelligence and life. In other words, technology is undergoing a phase transition. No longer simply a tool, it's going to engineer life and rival and surpass-our own intelligence,- Mustafa Suleyman.
On the one hand, humanity has successfully navigated through several technological waves, including the industrial revolution and the information age. Society swiftly found its way around automation and has been steadily evolving into ‘homo technologicus’ (a modern human deeply intertwined with and defined by their use of technology). However, Suleyman underscores that the current wave, fueled by AI and synthetic biology, is an entirely different beast, and if not contained, the implications might be far beyond our control. And it's not just about more advanced automation of tasks or the further digitization of information; it's about fundamentally altering the way we interact with the world and each other. The AI entrepreneur argues that, in fact, this wave has the potential to redefine aspects of society and human existence that have remained constant for centuries.
But at the heart of Suleyman's narrative and the central idea of the book is the containment problem. This refers to 'technology’s predisposition to diffuse widely in waves and to have emergent impacts that are impossible to predict or control, including negative and unforeseen consequences.' The immense challenge facing humanity in the 21st century, therefore, lies in keeping these powerful technologies in check.
The author also explores the paradox of technological advancement. As our capabilities grow, so do the risks. Yet, abandoning technological progress might be just as catastrophic as letting it roam free. The book calls for a balance between exploiting technology's potential and guarding against its unintended consequences. It also highlights the reasons why emerging technologies must be contained for the prosperity of the human species.
AlphaGo's Milestone
In his personal AI journey, Suleyman highlights the case of AlphaGo, the AI program developed by DeepMind that defeated the world champion Go player in 4 out of 5 games. It was a defining moment in AI history. For those unfamiliar with the ancient East Asian game, Go is rather complex, to say the least. As Suleyman describes it, "after three moves in Go, there are on the order of 200 quadrillion (2 x 10^15) possible configurations.” So this wasn't just a victory in a complex board game; it was a demonstration of AI's ability to tackle problems in ways that were once thought to be the exclusive domain of human cognition. AlphaGo's triumph in 2016 signified a leap in machine learning, showcasing AI's potential to learn, adapt, and excel beyond our expectations.
Synthetic Biology
The book also explores the field of synthetic biology and how it can intersect with AI. This merging of fields heralds a new era of innovation where AI's data-crunching prowess could dramatically accelerate biological research and application. Suleyman envisions a future where AI-driven synthetic biology could lead to groundbreaking advancements in genetic engineering and healthcare. However, he also cautions about the ethical and safety considerations that such powerful tools necessitate, as well as the global threats that such advancements may entail, in the likes of lab leaks of viruses far more deadly than humanity has ever seen.
The Pace of AI Development
Suleyman emphasizes the accelerating development of AI, a trend that is reshaping industries and societies at an unprecedented pace. He notes that the advancements in AI are increasingly manifesting in everyday applications, affecting everything from healthcare to finance. Take, for example, the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and how in little over a year it had dramatically shifted the direction of an industry that for so long seemed to be a distant reality.
Al is far deeper and more powerful than just another technology. The risk isn't in overhyping it; it's rather in missing the magnitude of the coming wave. It's not just a tool or platform but a transformative meta-technology, the technology behind technology and everything else, itself a maker of tools and platforms, not just a system but a generator of systems of any and all kinds. Step back and consider what's happening on the scale of a decade or a century. We really are at a turning point in the history of humanity,- Mustafa Suleyman.
And although progress in AI does not directly mirror progress in AGI (artificial general intelligence), where the AI is ‘able to perform all human cognitive skills better than the smartest humans’, it’s not a tale of science fiction anymore.
The Global AI Race: A Balance of Power
In a world driven by technology, Suleyman discusses the intensifying race among nations to gain the upper hand in AI. He warns of the geopolitical ramifications of this race, where AI is not just a tool for economic advancement but also a strategic asset in national security. This competition, while fostering innovation, also raises concerns about ethical boundaries and the need for global cooperation to ensure AI's responsible use.
Mustafa Suleyman also touches on the critical issue of chip production, a fundamental component in AI development. The book underscores the growing demand for increasingly powerful and efficient semiconductor chips, which are the bedrock of advanced AI systems. As AI algorithms become more complex, the need for high-performance computing hardware escalates, placing immense pressure on chip production capabilities. This demand presents both a technological challenge and an opportunity for innovation in semiconductor manufacturing. The author specifically mentions NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and ASML as key players in the chip production industry, essential for AI development. The scarcity of these essential chips is, quite notably, placing a significant strain on global demand and raises tension in the race for AI dominance. This challenge has even led figures such as Sam Altman from OpenAI to consider starting a chip venture themselves.
Is containment possible?
Suleyman's narrative is a balance between optimism and caution, yet you can feel a shift towards the risks of catastrophic outcomes. He repeatedly emphasizes the importance of why containment must be a priority and proposes a 10-part plan of how it can be achieved. This includes the idea that both businesses and governments must play a pivotal role in risk mitigation and international cooperation. Containment, as Suleyman describes, is a dynamic challenge, requiring continuous adaptation and foresight. He stresses that technological developments, despite their immense potential, come with the inevitability of unintended consequences, a theme historically evidenced in inventions from the atomic bomb to even social media.
The “Coming Wave” paints a picture of a future where AI and related technologies are central to all aspects of life, both positive and negative. Mustafa Suleyman voices critical concerns which, while appearing dystopian, serve as a cautionary forecast for the future if humanity remains passive observers.In essence, this book is a call to society - to embrace the future with awareness, responsibility, and foresight. After all, powerful technology in the wrong hands is much like entrusting a monkey with a grenade.
For those looking to understand the trajectory of our technological future and the moral and ethical considerations it entails, "The Coming Wave" is an indispensable read.
