✨ U.S. Rate Cut Chances Hover Around 50/50 Again
posted 13 Sept 2024
The chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September surged to 47%, according to CME Group data at the time of publication.
September 18, 2024 Target Rate Probabilities. Source: cmegroup.com
Just two days prior, when August inflation figures were released, the probability was only 15%.
It’s crucial to understand that these numbers have been fluctuating significantly in recent days. While the projections are informative, they don’t guarantee the Fed’s actual decision, which will be announced on September 18.
The surge in probability came after a Wall Street Journal article that featured insights from various experts, including former Fed officials.
Additionally, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley's comments at the Bretton Woods Committee’s "Future of Finance" forum in Singapore contributed to the shift.
I think there's a strong case for 50, whether they're going to do it or not,Dudley commented.
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