Why Was Pavel Durov Arrested?

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The arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov is clouded with rumors and speculation. It's not surprising, as we might be witnessing a recalibration of the boundaries between free speech and public safety. Let's sift through the facts to better understand the developments, leaving aside conspiracy theories.
Pavel Durov is potentially facing charges for allegedly allowing his platform, Telegram, to be used for promoting terrorism, violence, arms and drug trafficking, human trafficking, and pedophilia advertising. He is also accused of refusing to cooperate with European and American intelligence agencies by denying them access to required information. Nevertheless, many believe the true reasons behind his arrest go much deeper.

Recent Movements of Pavel Durov  

Beyond the commonly known details about the owner of one of the world's most popular messaging platforms, additional facts are noteworthy:
  1. Pavel Durov is a citizen of four countries: russia, France, the UAE, and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
  1. He has spent the past year living in Dubai and has shown a reluctance to leave his residence.
  1. On August 19, Durov was in Baku. While the purpose of his visit remains unknown, it coincidentally aligned with a meeting between putin and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. Some russian Telegram channels speculate that Durov may have attended this meeting, though there is no official confirmation of his presence.
  1. On August 21, Durov told his followers that he intended to visit France for some rest. However, according to the French TV channel TF1, he knew that the U.S. arrest warrant targeted him in France, leading him to avoid the country previously.
  1. On August 25, Durov landed in Paris on a private jet, accompanied by a bodyguard and a secretary. Upon disembarking at Le Bourget Airport, he was arrested by the GTA (Air Transport Gendarmerie).
  1. That same day, he was presented before a judge who mandated his preliminary detention in a migration jail for 96 hours. After this period, he must either be formally charged or released.

Should the U.S. extradition request be confirmed, Durov could be extradited from France by the end of August. As of now, there have been no official statements from local law enforcement regarding this matter.

Is Durov Under Kremlin Control?  

Telegram founder Pavel Durov is surrounded by numerous rumors and legends. Among these, a persistent claim suggests that he has been under the influence and possibly control of the FSB for years, although direct evidence is lacking. Notably, since 2011, there have been consistent efforts by the Kremlin to exert influence over his operations and to oversee his social media platform.

In 2018, russia attempted unsuccessfully to block Telegram. Interestingly, following this attempt, the platform saw a significant increase in pro-Kremlin channels and groups. From February 2022, Telegram has served as the main communication tool among russian military personnel and intelligence services. After Durov’s arrest, various russian influencers and war correspondents demanded his immediate release, and some even proposed exchanging him for French nationals detained in russia on espionage charges (Laurent Vinatier and Philippe Delpal).

The situation has also drawn attention from Alisher Usmanov, an oligarch and the owner of Mail.ru Group, who has long-standing business connections with Durov. During a financial crisis following legal issues with the social media platform VKontakte, Usmanov provided Durov with crucial funding to develop Telegram. Whether this assistance was altruistic remains a point of debate.

Thus, the evolution of Telegram illustrates how the destiny of a startup can pivot dramatically through the involvement of a politically connected businessman. 

The incident has not gone unnoticed by other prominent russian figures. Former president Dmitry Medvedev commented that Durov miscalculated by choosing to emigrate, stating "he is russian – and therefore unpredictable and dangerous," unlike Musk or Zuckerberg, who is known to cooperate with the FBI. This remark may hint at an expectation for russian citizens to collaborate with the FSB, aligning with old KGB mindsets.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, represented by Maria Zakharova, and even the ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova have shown concern. The russian embassy in France requested urgent consular access to Durov through a formal note, although access was denied by the French court pending a judicial decision.

Could Durov Have Chosen Prison to Escape Putin?  

In a revealing interview with Tucker Carlson, Pavel Durov disclosed that FBI agents had consistently tracked him during his international travels, with his arrivals in the USA often accompanied by attempts to interrogate him. The authorities sought access to information on Telegram stored on American servers.

The interview itself is significant, as Durov is known for his reticence with the media, making this his first public dialogue with a journalist in seven years. 

He detailed his refusal to cooperate with any government, describing himself as a “man of the world.” His emotional response appeared genuine, highlighting his deep concerns about neutrality and the freedom to express opinions.

Could the billionaire underestimate the risk of arrest by traveling to France? Unlikely.Announcing his trip to Paris despite knowing about an existing arrest warrant is not characteristic of Durov, who is typically highly cautious. 

Could it be that during meetings in Baku, Durov was subjected to pressure, possibly involving an offer to sell Telegram or demands for access to or deletion of encrypted server information, with threats of dire consequences worse than imprisonment? This possibility cannot be dismissed. The messenger has accumulated and securely stores gigabytes of content, potentially serving as evidence in international courts post-war.If Durov truly refused to grant putin control over Telegram's information, his life would certainly be at risk.

Given the current media frenzy in russia, it’s clear that the Kremlin is desperate to apprehend Durov, who remains out of their reach. In this context, being detained in a French or American prison might indeed offer a safer refuge, preventing him from meeting a fate similar to the poisoned Alexander Litvinenko.

Is Durov a Target of Demonstrative Punishment?  

Currently, Telegram stands as the sole global platform committed to confidential communication. It has consistently refrained from moderating content, allowing all types of information to circulate, including that which is prohibited.

The messenger uses end-to-end encryption via its proprietary MTProto protocol. For enhanced security, encryption keys are distributed, and each initiation of a secret chat involves an exchange of new keys, making the interception of messages nearly impossible.

This fact is a key reason for Telegram's massive popularity, with its active user base nearing one billion.This level of confidentiality is unmatched; not by China's tightly controlled messengers, nor by American WhatsApp, which is accessible to the FSB, nor by Japanese Viber, whose executives, after extended negotiations, agreed to share information with various national security agencies upon request. The case against Durov—or perhaps now, the case against Telegram—could be a pivotal conflict over control of social media platforms and messaging apps. It would be a grim outcome if Pavel Durov were to emulate Ross Ulbricht's fate, who was an idealist dreaming of creating a platform for communication independent of governmental oversight.